Prognostication publishes sports and event-market research selected by Progno, our prediction system. Where Progno supplies a Kalshi contract, the pick includes its recorded market details. The website displays these selections; it does not generate additional predictions or execute trades.
How a pick reaches your feed
Progno selects a pick and assigns it to Free, Pro, or Elite. The website receives and stores that selection, then displays the fields available for your membership. Selection criteria and inputs can vary by model and market. This page explains the published fields; it does not claim a universal confidence threshold, a fixed number of daily picks, or independent verification of every upstream input.
Free members receive Free picks. Pro members receive Pro picks, with one Elite fallback when no Pro pick is available in the active feed. Elite members can access all three batches. Compare membership access.
Confidence and model probability
Confidence is the estimate supplied by Progno for the published selection. It is a model estimate, not a guarantee or an independently verified success rate. The website does not recalculate or calibrate it. A missing estimate stays unavailable.
Market price and YES/NO contracts
A Kalshi pick can identify a YES or NO side, a contract ticker, and a price in cents. Contract prices express the market's view of an outcome; they are not objective probabilities. A correct contract settles at $1, subject to the market's rules. Check the selected side, current executable price, fees, and settlement terms on Kalshi before making your own decision.
A stored price is a snapshot, not a live quote or evidence that a subscriber traded at that price. The website does not currently retain a separate quote timestamp for every pick. The feed refresh time tells you when the website loaded the feed, not when the exchange last changed its price.
What edge means
Edge expresses an estimated difference between the model and a market baseline. When comparing probabilities, that difference is measured in percentage points. For example, a hypothetical 60% model estimate against a 55% market baseline is a 5 percentage-point difference. This is an explanation, not an actual pick or a promise of profit.
Displayed edge comes from Progno. Do not assume it includes fees, the bid/ask spread, or price changes unless the accompanying research explicitly says so. A favorable estimate can disappear when the available price changes.
Timing and stored information
The event time supplied with a pick may differ from the exchange's trading close time. Check the contract itself. A later publication can update a stored pick's selection, price, analysis, and received timestamp. Historical details are therefore labeled as stored snapshots, not an immutable record of the first publication. Missing fields and unavailable data are never replaced with sample picks.
How results are counted
The public record uses recognizable settled outcomes stored with published picks. Wins and losses form the win-rate denominator; pushes and voids do not. Open or unrecognized results are excluded. Duplicate copies of the same selection across membership tiers should not count as separate successes. The record page states the sample and calculation time used.
Win rate alone does not establish profitability. Return on investment requires reliable entry prices, stakes, fees, and settlements. We do not publish an ROI claim without those records. Historical model testing is different from research published before an event and must be identified separately.
Inspect a result or report a discrepancy
Review the published record and its available pick details. If a selection, price, timestamp, or outcome looks wrong, contact support with the event and recorded details. Stored data may be corrected; the site does not currently provide a complete public revision history.
Limits and responsibility
Models can be wrong, inputs can be incomplete, and small samples can mislead. No result is guaranteed. Prognostication is independent of Kalshi and does not hold customer funds, place orders, or manage positions. Read the risk disclosure.