Effective August 6, 2026. Read this disclosure before using a Prognostication pick or probability to make a financial or wagering decision.
You can lose your entire position
Event contracts and other prediction-market positions are speculative. An incorrect outcome can make a contract expire worthless, and fees or unfavorable execution can increase losses. Commit only money you can afford to lose.
Research is not a guarantee
A model probability is an estimate based on available inputs and assumptions. Injuries, lineup changes, news, data errors, model limitations, market movement, and unexpected events can make an estimate wrong or stale. Confidence and estimated edge do not measure certainty.
Market and settlement risk
Prices can move before you act. Liquidity can be limited, spreads can widen, orders may not fill, trading may be suspended, and a platform may apply settlement or cancellation rules differently from your interpretation. Always read the exchange's current contract terms, source agency, close time, and resolution rules.
No trade execution or individualized advice
Prognostication publishes informational research. It does not know your finances, objectives, tax position, location, or risk tolerance and does not place or manage trades. You decide whether, where, when, and how to act.
Legal and platform restrictions
Prediction-market and sports-related products are not available everywhere. Laws, regulatory treatment, age rules, professional restrictions, and platform eligibility can change. Use only a lawful platform for which you are eligible and obtain independent professional advice when appropriate.
Past performance
Historical wins, losses, confidence, or win rate do not predict future results. A small sample can be misleading. Pushes and open picks are treated separately, and Prognostication does not publish ROI without auditable stake, fee, price, and settlement records.
Independent third parties
References to Kalshi, Polymarket, sportsbooks, leagues, teams, data providers, or other services do not imply affiliation or endorsement. Each third party controls its own access, pricing, availability, and rules.
Questions or corrections
Report a potentially incorrect market field or settled result to support@prognostication.com with the pick or market identifier. Do not send account passwords or payment-card details.